Thinking Flaws

Recently, the Barclays Skyscraper hit the news in the Singapore newspaper. The basic findings are that there is an unhealthy correlation between many skyscrapers being built and economic bust. The report indicates concerns about the building activities of skyscrapers in China and India implying an impending economic bust. They may be right or wrong, there may be a bust or not, maybe because of the skyscrapers or maybe for another reason.

I want to bring this up as this is a classical thinking mistake that we want to avoid. Let’s look at it.

The statement is:
Intense building of skyscrapers (cause) will lead to an economic bust (effect)
This may have indeed happened a few times, but the statement is only well founded if one can qualify.
1. Has there been intense building of skyscrapers (cause) without an economic bust (effect) taking place? Singapore, Hong Kong comes to my mind.
2. Have there been economic busts (effect) without prior massive building of skyscrapers (cause)? Maybe Greece.
If the answer to both questions is a ‘No’, the theory would be proven.

Takeaway:
If you believe that you see a correlation between events A (cause) leading to events B (effect) ask yourself:

- Did events A (cause) also take place without causing events B (effect)
- Did events B (effect) take place without events A (cause) happening prior to this?

After answering these questions you will have a clearer picture.

That is why people wear ‘lucky shirts’. But hard work may show a stronger correlation to good results.